Goldman raises Q4 oil price outlook on lower OECD stocks

Feb 23 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude forecasts for the 4th fourth of 2026 by $6 to $60 and $56 respectively, ‌citing little OECD stocks, adjacent arsenic it continued to presume nary Iran-related ‌supply disruption and maintained its presumption of a surplus this year.

For the year, it present expects Brent ​to mean $64 a barrel, up from $56 previously, and WTI to mean $60, up from $52.

Oil prices fell astir 1% connected Monday arsenic the U.S. and Iran prepared for a 3rd circular of atomic talks, easing fears of an escalating conflict.

Brent crude futures were trading astir $71 a ‌barrel astatine 0641 GMT, portion ⁠U.S. WTI crude futures were astatine $65.75 a barrel.

In a enactment dated Sunday, Goldman said its $60 Brent terms forecast reflected a gradual fading ⁠of a $6 hazard premium estimation assuming that geopolitical tensions easiness and a $5 diminution successful the just worth terms connected rising stocks successful the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

The slope ​maintained its ​2026 surplus forecast of 2.3 cardinal barrels ​per time (bpd), assuming nary large proviso ‌disruption and nary Russia-Ukraine peace.

The slope said its 2026 surplus reflects offsetting 0.2 cardinal bpd downgrades to proviso and request connected somewhat softer maturation successful Asia.

The slope downgraded its 2026 proviso outlook for Kazakhstan, Venezuela, Iran, and Iraq owed to realized accumulation misses, portion it upgraded proviso expectations for the Americas and successful halfway OPEC countries ‌with spare capacity.

The slope said it expects OPEC+ ​to statesman gradually expanding accumulation successful the 2nd 4th ​of 2026, fixed that OECD ​inventories person not built up.

Goldman, however, expects downside risks of $5 for ‌Brent and $8 for WTI for the 4th ​quarter of 2026 if ​potential sanctions alleviation for Iran oregon Russia accelerates landed banal builds and unlocks higher proviso successful the longer term.

It expects Brent and WTI to mean $65 ​and $61, respectively, successful 2027 and ‌to emergence to $70 and $66 by December 2027 connected the backmost of coagulated ​demand and slowing proviso growth.

(Reporting by Pablo Sinha successful Bengaluru, further reporting ​by Swati Verma; Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus)