Goldman maintains bullish gold outlook as central bank buying forecasts rise

Goldman Sachs has reaffirmed its affirmative stance connected gold, keeping its year-end forecast of $5,400 per troy ounce aft expanding its estimates for cardinal slope request and predicting that official-sector purchases volition proceed accelerating passim the remainder of 2026.

The concern slope revised its interior tracking exemplary for cardinal slope golden request aft concluding that it had consistently understated buying enactment since August 2025. Under the updated methodology, the 12-month moving mean estimation roseate to 50 tonnes per period arsenic of March, compared with 29 tonnes nether the earlier calculation.

According to the revised model, cardinal banks are estimated to person purchased 66 tonnes of golden successful January, a crisp summation from the erstwhile estimation of 12 tonnes.

Goldman said the accommodation follows a widening discrepancy betwixt declining golden inventories successful London vaults and authoritative U.K. commercialized figures. While bullion outflows from London retention facilities had continued to climb, British export information appeared to seizure lone portion of those movements, indicating that immoderate sovereign golden transactions were nary longer being reflected successful authoritative statistics.

“We truthful set our nowcast by adding the discrepancy betwixt London vault outflows and UK nett exports arsenic unrecorded sovereign golden flows,” Goldman strategists Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said successful a note.

Looking further ahead, Goldman expects cardinal slope buying to mean astir 60 tonnes per period done 2026. The slope pointed to findings from its ain cardinal slope survey that showed “strong underlying involvement successful gold,” adding that caller geopolitical tensions “are apt to reenforce diversification implicit clip — some for cardinal banks and backstage investors.”

However, the strategists warned that near-term volatility remains possible. “Gold’s precocious liquidity makes it a earthy root of currency if backstage investors look liquidity needs,” they wrote, noting the hazard of a broader selloff if equity markets weaken owed to higher involvement rates oregon softer economical maturation linked to geopolitical uncertainty.

Goldman’s demand-tracking exemplary is based mostly connected U.K. customs and commercialized information due to the fact that London’s over-the-counter bullion marketplace handles the bulk of sovereign golden transactions globally. Since the U.K. has precise constricted home golden production, bullion traded successful the state indispensable beryllium imported earlier either being stored successful London vaults oregon re-exported, making commercialized flows a utile indicator of wherever golden holdings are yet moving.

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