From bear hugs to handshakes: How India lost its edge with Trump while Pakistan quietly gained ground

This week, President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi came face-to-face astatine the G7 acme successful France, their archetypal specified brushwood since February 2025. Rather than his trademark carnivore hug, Modi greeted Trump with a grin and handshake.

Then connected Wednesday, the 2 held a bilateral meeting. It was a affable chat, but 1 that came against a backdrop of compounding tensions.

As India works astatine restoring its narration with Washington, its arch-foe Pakistan has expanded its ain diplomatic profile, complicating India's run against its nuclear-armed rival.

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President Donald Trump looks astatine Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif speaking pursuing the authoritative signing of the archetypal signifier of the Gaza ceasefire statement betwixt Israel and Hamas. Shariff announced his volition to nominate Trump for the Noble Peace Prize for a 2nd time.  (Evelyn Hockstein / Reuters)

For years, India built an planetary lawsuit against Pakistan, projecting it arsenic an isolated oregon destabilizing state. This hardline stance appeared to beryllium working, with Modi declaring to Pakistan, "India has been palmy successful isolating you, and we volition intensify those efforts." 

But a decennary later, Pakistan is rapidly emerging arsenic a cardinal planetary subordinate successful the portion and beyond.

While Modi initially tried to prosecute Pakistan, his government’s attack yet hardened astir the mantra that "terror and talks cannot coexist."

In Washington, India has typically been favored, with Presidents Trump, Biden, Obama and George W. Bush each making visits during their clip successful office.

President Donald Trump (R) shakes hands with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a bilateral gathering astatine the G7 Summit connected June 17, 2026 successful Evian-les-Bains, France.  (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Modi built a rapport with Trump during his archetypal word successful bureau and was 1 of the archetypal satellite leaders invited to the White House aft Trump’s inauguration. But implicit the past year, that narration has travel nether strain arsenic Islamabad softly clawed its mode backmost to credibility.

"India misjudged Trump successful word two, banking connected erstwhile affable relations," Sid Dubey, a visiting prof astatine Bennett University successful India, told Fox News Digital. "They person yet to commencement recovering from that."

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U.S. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi question to the assemblage astatine Sardar Patel Stadium successful Ahmedabad, India, Monday, Feb. 24, 2020. India poured connected the pageantry with a joyful, colorful invited for President Donald Trump connected Monday that kicked disconnected a whirlwind 36-hour sojourn meant to reaffirm U.S.-India ties portion providing enviable overseas imagery for a president successful a re-election year. (AP Photo/Aijaz Rahi)

The displacement archetypal became evident successful May 2025, erstwhile President Trump announced helium had secured a ceasefire betwixt nuclear-armed India and Pakistan. The warring had travel implicit India-administered Kashmir and was the worst successful decades.

Islamabad promptly praised Trump for ending the deadly quality and adjacent nominated him for a Nobel Peace Prize. New Delhi, however, rejected the claim, insisting the ceasefire was the effect of nonstop bilateral talks with Pakistan.

The effect reflected India’s long-standing sensitivity to third-party engagement successful what it fiercely maintains is simply a bilateral dispute.

In the months that followed, frictions lone deepened.

FILE -- In this Jan. 11, 2013 record photo, a Pakistani Ranger successful achromatic azygous and his Indian counterpart march during a flag-off ceremony, astatine the associated Pakistan-India borderline cheque station of Wagah adjacent Lahore, Pakistan. (AP Photo/K.M. Chaudary, File)

President Trump deed India with immoderate of the steepest tariffs imposed connected immoderate large economy. Meanwhile, U.S. sanctions unit connected Russian lipid rattled vigor import-dependent India, portion disputes implicit H-1B visas added further strain. Analysts accidental Trump’s America First docket progressively overshadowed the relationship Modi had cultivated during Trump’s archetypal term.

"When Trump unluckily said the May 2025 clash ended due to the fact that of him personally, that upset India a lot, and they made that known," Dubey said. "Then the tariffs were different slap successful India’s face. Meanwhile, Pakistan took advantage, leaving India astatine a spot of a loss. From there, relations fell further with the Iran conflict."

India is among the countries astir indirectly affected by the strategical fallout from the Iran war, facing economical unit and mounting vigor concerns.

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Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf meets with main of Defence Forces of Pakistan, Field Marshal Asim Munir, successful Tehran, Iran, May 23, 2026. (Iranian Parliament Speaker Office/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via Reuters)

Last week, a U.S. onslaught further exacerbated tensions aft 3 Indian seafarers became collateral harm successful the conflict. They were the archetypal and lone seafarers confirmed killed arsenic portion of the U.S. blockade, sparking outrage crossed India.

New Delhi instantly summoned Washington’s Chargé d’Affaires Jason Meeks, expressing heavy interest implicit the renewed attacks and arguing that its nationals were becoming casualties successful a warfare not their own.

India besides warned of the broader humanitarian, economic, and vigor consequences of the conflict, which are expected to linger adjacent arsenic an statement has present been reached.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance, center, walks with Pakistan's Chief of Defence Forces and Chief of Army Staff Field Marshall Asim Munir, left, and Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar aft arriving for talks with Iranian officials successful Islamabad, Pakistan, Saturday, April 11, 2026. (Jacquelyn Martin/Pool via AP Photo)

All the while, Pakistan was gaining diplomatic visibility, uncovering itself successful the antithetic presumption of currying favour successful Washington portion maintaining heavy ties with China, Iran and the Gulf states.

Pakistan’s salient relation successful caller months highlighted however Islamabad has been much nimble successful its diplomacy than India," Council connected Foreign Relations Senior Fellow Sadanand Dhume told Fox News Digital. "Additionally, Pakistan decisively outmaneuvered India’s quixotic bid to isolate Pakistan connected the satellite stage."

Regional dynamics person besides been reshaped by the 2 rivals' competing strategies. India has deepened its strategical concern with the U.S. done alliances specified arsenic the Quad concern with the U.S., Australia, and Japan and has expanded practice crossed South Asian states, including a burgeoning narration with Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s increasing determination relevance has been reflected successful its strengthened ties with China, improved relations with determination partners similar Bangladesh and expanded information practice with Gulf states.

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Additionally, Trump, who accused Pakistan of "deceit and lies" during his archetypal term, has since repeatedly praised its leadership. In June 2025, the president invited Pakistan’s service main Asim Munir to the White House for a high-profile luncheon meeting.

Munir was the archetypal Pakistani subject main who was not besides president to beryllium hosted by a U.S. president. He besides led the warfare effort against India earlier that year. 

In this photograph released by the Inter Services Public Relations, Pakistan's Chief of Defense Forces and Army Chief Gen. Asim Munir, center, Pakistan Naval Chief Admiral Naveed Ashraf, left, and Pakistan Air Force Chief Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Babar be a defender of grant ceremonial astatine the associated subject bid office successful Rawalpindi, Pakistan, Monday, Dec. 8, 2025.  (Inter Services Public Relations via AP)

Trump described Munir arsenic his "favorite Field Marshal" and an "exceptional quality being." 

Their narration has been further reflected successful commercialized deals and, astir recently, Pakistan’s relation arsenic a main mediator successful restoring diplomacy betwixt the U.S. and Iran.

"India tried to marque Pakistan an planetary pariah. Instead, Pakistan has wormed its mode into Trump’s bully books done a operation of factual co-operation with the U.S. and outrageous flattery of the president, starring to Trump elevating Field Marshal Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif arsenic heroes," Dhume said.

India, meanwhile, has maintained adjacent ties with Israel portion mostly sticking to much measured messaging. 

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On June 15, upon the statement of a woody with Iran, Modi released a statement, saying, "India hopes that the implementation of this knowing volition assistance reconstruct bid and stableness successful the portion and guarantee the state of navigation and commerce."

"Hats disconnected to Pakistan. They worked truly hard to bring this awfully disruptive warfare with Iran to an end," Dubey told Fox. "India unluckily mislaid retired by not seeking to beryllium a occupation solver similar Pakistan. It could person played its cards amended arsenic a peacemaker, fixed its traditionally beardown relations with Tehran."

Still, analysts caution these are rapidly evolving dynamics. There is nary warrant that Pakistan’s existent infinitesimal volition last, and the tide for India could inactive turn.

"Pakistan’s mediation relation has allowed it to substantially reset its planetary image. It has positioned itself arsenic a liable planetary histrion alternatively than a rogue authorities liable for some atomic proliferation and exporting Islamic terrorism. How agelong this lasts depends successful ample measurement connected 2 things: volition Pakistan find a mode to stay successful Trump’s bully books, and volition it beryllium capable to alteration its behaviour sufficiently to person the satellite that it has so turned implicit a caller leaf," Dhume told Fox News Digital.

Meanwhile, India is moving to regain its presumption and amusement the U.S. it is inactive a reliable partner.

Marco Rubio visited India past month, his archetypal since becoming Trump’s apical diplomat past year, which was wide seen arsenic an effort to reset ties. 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks arsenic President Donald Trump looks connected during a furniture gathering successful the Cabinet Room of the White House successful Washington, DC, connected April 30, 2025.  (JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)

Trump and Modi's G7 gathering marked different important step. 

Trump praised Modi arsenic "calm, chill and wholly killer" and said helium would beryllium traveling to India "sometime successful the future." India has been pressing Trump for a visit, perchance arsenic portion of a broader gathering involving Japan and Australia.

Trump besides said the United States would support India.

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"If anybody attacks that man, we're going to beryllium there," Trump said, referring to Modi. "Now, if there’s a caller leader, I’m not definite astir it."

The Pakistani and Indian governments did not respond to Fox News Digital requests for comment.