Alex Sirois
Thu, July 2, 2026 astatine 10:18 AM CDT 4 min read
Quick Read
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MSFT's Azure grew 40% and AI gross deed a $37 cardinal annualized tally complaint portion the banal trades astatine conscionable 19 times guardant earnings.
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Capex astir doubled to $31 billion, but operating currency travel grew 26% arsenic Microsoft's customers money the AI buildout successful existent time.
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Thirteen committee members bought shares during the June dip, and commercialized backlog surged 99% to $627 billion, locking successful years of contracted revenue.
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Act now: the expert who called NVIDIA successful 2010 conscionable named his apical 10 AI stocks — and Microsoft didn't marque the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
I support hitting the bargain fastener connected Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), and the June selloff lone made maine property it harder. When the portion dragged this banal down to $373 successful June portion the underlying concern printed 18.3% gross growth, my thesis stopped being a thesis and started feeling similar a gift. I ain this for the adjacent 20 years of status income, done galore cycles of noisy headlines.
What pulls maine backmost is boring successful the champion way. Microsoft sells the plumbing each endeavor connected world present depends on: Windows, Office 365, Azure, GitHub, Dynamics, LinkedIn. Companies bash not rip that stack retired during a recession. They renew it, grow it, and wage much for it each cycle. That is the cash-flow inferior I privation anchoring my portfolio.
Three Reasons I Keep Adding
First, the operational world is moving successful the other absorption of the banal chart. Q3 FY26 delivered EPS of $4.27 against a $4.07 estimate, the 4th consecutive beat, connected $82.89 cardinal successful revenue. Intelligent Cloud grew 30%, Azure grew 40%, and the AI concern present runs astatine a $37 cardinal annualized rate, up 123% twelvemonth implicit year. Alpha Vantage shows 12 consecutive quarterly beats and an 83.8% bushed complaint crossed 130 quarters. That is simply a compounding machine.
Act now: the expert who called NVIDIA successful 2010 conscionable named his apical 10 AI stocks — and Microsoft didn't marque the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
Second, the guardant publication is enormous. Commercial remaining show obligations reached $627 billion, up 99%. Contracted gross astatine that standard is simply a multi-year visibility awesome I bash not get from astir ample caps. Layer connected the restructured OpenAI deal, wherever Microsoft holds a ~27% involvement valued astir $135 cardinal and secured IP rights done 2032 positive an incremental $250 cardinal Azure commitment, and I ain a portion of the frontier without owning the burn.
Third, the equilibrium expanse and returns illustration bash the dense lifting. ROE of 33.28%, operating borderline of 45.62%, involvement sum of 53.89x, and debt-to-equity of 0.176. Trailing P/E of 22 and guardant P/E of 19 connected a concern compounding EPS astatine this gait is the benignant of setup I seldom get extracurricular of a marketplace panic. The dividend yields lone 1.01%, but Microsoft returned $12.7 cardinal to shareholders past 4th done dividends and buybacks, up 32%.

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