Eli Lilly Stock Has Skyrocketed. Novo Nordisk Has Crashed. 1 Number Explains Why They're Not Even Close Anymore.

Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) are acold and distant the heavyweights successful the planetary marketplace for GLP-1 drugs, which efficaciously dainty some benignant 2 diabetes and obesity.

And that marketplace is exploding, peculiarly for obesity drugs. The planetary marketplace for obesity medicines reached $66 cardinal successful 2025. Bloomberg predicts it volition deed $120 cardinal by 2030.

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Yet Lilly's stock terms is up 13.4% this twelvemonth and 58% implicit the past 52 weeks, portion Novo Nordisk shares are up conscionable 0.4% this twelvemonth and down 5% implicit the past 52 weeks. Since July 2024, Novo has plummeted 62%.

What explains the divergence, with Lilly soaring and Novo collapsing?

I would constituent to 1 fig to explicate it: marketplace stock successful the obesity market, which is expected to turn faster than the diabetes cause market. The 2 cause companies collectively power astir 87% of planetary medicine obesity cause revenue.

But Lilly is presently ascendant successful that market, with a bulk 60% share, chiefly driven by the popularity and efficacy of its Zepbound GLP-1 obesity drug.

That's not to accidental things can't change. Until recently, astir GLP-1 drugs were delivered via injectables (i.e., needles). This spring, Novo Nordisk introduced its obesity cause Wegovy successful pill form, and it's disconnected to a precise accelerated start. As a result, the Danish steadfast revised its income and nett forecasts higher.

So, enactment tuned. The GLP-1 contention is acold from over, and some firms are committed to winning.

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