Daily Spotlight: War Roils Oil Price Outlook

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Argus

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Mar 24, 2026

Daily Spotlight: War Roils Oil Price Outlook

Summary

The terms of a tube of West Texas Intermediate, the crude lipid benchmark grade, had declined steadily for 4 years. But it has soared into triple-digit territory successful caller weeks owed to the warfare successful Iran. Iran is not a large shaper of lipid (3% of the planetary total), but the state has responded to being attacked by efficaciously closing the Strait of Hormuz, done which tankers moving astir 20% of the world's lipid proviso travel. Although President Trump has present called disconnected rocket strikes successful the region, lipid prices astatine $90 per tube stay much than 60% supra their lows for the year. And they whitethorn enactment elevated for a while, arsenic attacks person damaged state fields and refineries successful Saudi Arabia and Qatar. For 2026, our lipid terms forecast present calls for $75 per barrel, up from our anterior forecast of $60, and our forecast trading scope is present $50-$120. That compares to an mean terms of $65 successful 2025, $77 successful 2024, $80 successful 2023, and $95 successful 2022. The halfway drivers down lipid prices implicit the agelong word travel from Econ 101: planetary proviso and demand. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administrat