Daily Spotlight: Dollar Surges Amid Iran War

Argus

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Apr 17, 2026

Summary

Trends successful the dollar, the world's ascendant currency, connection clues astir the assurance investors person successful the U.S. system and fiscal system. The greenback mostly has been successful precocious request since the commencement of the pandemic. At the opening of 2025, it was 21% supra its long-run average. Why? When planetary uncertainty increases, investors question a harmless haven for their assets. But the hot-dollar inclination had started to unwind a bit: successful 2025, the greenback declined 5% connected a global, trade-weighted basis. There were respective reasons, including economical uncertainty caused by President Trump's tariff policies, swelling U.S. national debt, a betterment successful the European economy, and elemental worth investing. In caller weeks, each of the dollar angst has moved to the backmost burner and the greenback again is ascendant. The determination is successful effect to the warfare successful Iran, which triggered different flight-to-quality determination into dollar-denominated assets. Indeed, since hostilities commenced, the greenback is up 5% and adjacent rhythm highs. This latest rally reaffirms our presumption that the dollar is acold from astatine hazard of losing its presumption arsenic the planetary currency of choice. At existent levels, the dollar is astir 19% -- much than 1 modular deviation -- supra its 20-year mean value. It much than held up erstwhile the U.S. authorities temporarily unopen down. The greenback is supported by the extent of a $27 trillion market, not to notation by the Fed's and the country's time-tested political/economic strategy of antiauthoritarian capitalism