Daily Spotlight: Can GDP's Engine Run on $4 Gas?

Argus

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Mar 13, 2026

Summary

The Bureau of Economic Analysis volition supply its 2nd estimation of 4Q GDP this morning. When we reappraisal the release, our absorption volition beryllium connected looking ahead, not back, arsenic we measure the resilience of user spending and concern business amid oil-supply disruptions that could rise ostentation and trim output. We admit that trying to gauge tiny changes successful prices and output is trivial erstwhile a warfare is impacting millions of lives. According to the beforehand estimation released successful February, 4Q GDP grew astatine an annualized complaint of 1.4%. That was a deceleration from 4.4% maturation successful the 3rd quarter. Last year's authorities shutdown played a role, but that is successful the past. Looking forward, the information connected concern business looks beardown and should thrust productivity gains. Investment grew 3.8% successful 4Q based connected the beforehand estimate. Spending connected artificial quality continued to beryllium an important operator of growth. Intellectual spot products grew 7.4%, helped by bundle and R&D. Equipment grew 3.2% connected apical of 5.2%, 8.5%, and 21.4% maturation successful the anterior 3 quarters, boosted by information-processing equipment. Based connected the Atlanta Fed's Nowcast, the near-term prospects for AI concern look strong. Equipment is projected to turn 8.1% successful 1Q and intelligence spot is projected to beryllium up 5.9%. The information connected consumers is little emphatic. Fourth-quarter spending roseate 2.4% based connected the beforehand report. That was a slowdown from 3.5% successful 3Q. The immense services class was up a coagulated 3.4% successful 4Q and looks fine. The ISM services scale showed enlargement successful January and February. Within goods, durables were