Citi raises Q3 2026 Brent crude oil forecast to $80 a barrel

For the 4th fourth of 2026 and the afloat twelvemonth 2027, Citi near its mean Brent terms targets successful spot astatine $70 and $65 a barrel.

By precocious Friday afternoon, Brent crude had gained $1.18, oregon astir 1.4%, to commercialized astatine $81.79 a barrel, portion WTI was up $1.03, oregon 1.33%, astatine $78.32. Weak U.S. employment information and persistent anxiousness implicit the stalled Iran-U.S. talks — present approaching the five-month people — were among the factors supporting prices.

Goldman Sachs, earlier successful the week, told clients it sees Brent holding betwixt $80 and $90 a tube absent a wide catalyst — either a confirmed atomic statement with Iran oregon a marked intensification of hostilities, according to Reuters.

The diplomatic concern has swung backmost and distant successful caller weeks. As President Donald Trump called disconnected planned strikes connected Iran and signaled a instrumentality to diplomacy astatine the commencement of August, Brent tumbled astir 6% to $82.95 a tube connected the archetypal trading time of the month. Vital Knowledge laminitis Adam Crisafulli cautioned astatine the clip that investors were keeping their enthusiasm successful check, noting that the struggle apt had further to spell earlier reaching a resolution, according to CNBC.

The conflict's effect connected planetary lipid markets has been severe. The International Energy Agency has characterized the disruption arsenic the worst lipid proviso situation connected record, and planetary lipid request is connected way to autumn by 1 cardinal barrels per time this twelvemonth arsenic warfare successful the Middle East restricts flows from the portion — the archetypal yearly request contraction since the COVID-19 pandemic. The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint carrying astir a 5th of satellite lipid and state supplies, has seen commerce travel astir to a standstill during the astir acute phases of the fighting.

According to IEA projections, output is expected to diminution by 3.7 cardinal barrels per time connected an yearly basis, past rebound by 7.5 cardinal barrels per time successful 2027 — though the bureau has warned that the way backmost volition beryllium gradual and uneven, fixed the extent of uncertainty surrounding the conflict.