Chipotle Reports Wednesday With Its Stock 30% Below Its High and 35 Analysts Pointing 30% Higher.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) reports second-quarter results aft the marketplace closes connected Wednesday, July 29, with its net telephone acceptable for 4:30 p.m. ET.

At astir $33 arsenic of this writing, shares beryllium astir 30% beneath their 52-week precocious of $46.61, and astir 18% supra their 52-week low. Meanwhile, the 35 analysts covering the burrito concatenation transportation an mean terms people of astir $43 -- astir 30% supra the stock.

Missed Nvidia successful 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" awesome flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the archetypal clip successful years, that aforesaid "Total Conviction" awesome is flashing for a institution 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »

The market, successful different words, is priced arsenic if the maturation stock's champion days are down it. But the analysts, connected average, don't look to judge that. Wednesday's study should accidental a batch astir which broadside has it right, and the reply arguably hinges connected 2 lines heavy successful the release: transactions and restaurant-level margin.

The fig to ticker is transactions

For astir of 2025, Chipotle's occupation was that less radical came. Comparable edifice income fell 4% twelvemonth implicit twelvemonth successful the 2nd 4th of 2025, driven by a 4.9% driblet successful transactions. The 4th fourth was amended but inactive negative, with comparable income down 2.5% connected a 3.2% transaction decline.

For the afloat year, comparable income fell 1.7%, with transactions down 2.9%, adjacent arsenic a higher mean cheque offset portion of the decline.

The archetypal 4th of 2026 broke the pattern. Comparable income roseate 0.5%, and the maturation came from traffic. Transactions accrued 0.6%, portion the mean cheque slipped 0.1%.

It's a humble number, but I'd reason it's the close benignant -- much customers, not conscionable higher prices. CEO Scott Boatwright said the 4th "exceeded expectations" arsenic the institution precocious its "Recipe for Growth" strategy.

Worth noting, too: the 4th Chipotle is astir to study laps that minus-4% play from a twelvemonth ago, the softest examination connected the calendar. If transactions can't turn against that bar, the betterment lawsuit weakens considerably.

The remainder of the maturation instrumentality ne'er stopped, either. First-quarter gross roseate 7.4% twelvemonth implicit twelvemonth to $3.1 billion. The institution opened 49 restaurants during the period, 42 of them with a Chipotlane drive-through lane, bringing its basal to astir 4,090 company-owned locations. And integer orders ran astatine 38.6% of nutrient and beverage revenue.

Full-year guidance calls for 350 to 370 caller locations, including 10 to 15 tally by planetary partners. That works retired to astir a caller edifice a day.