ASML Dropped 5% Over a Month But a Prominent Wall Street Wealth Manager Sees 50% Returns Coming

2 weeks ago 20

Alex Sirois

Mon, August 10, 2026 astatine 10:41 AM CDT 6 min read

Quick Read

A China state-backed DUV header sent ASML down 7%, but Bernstein's $2,623 Street-high people inactive implies 50% upside from existent levels.
Peers AMAT and KLAC fell 5 to 10% connected the aforesaid China fears but transportation lone astir 17% analyst-implied upside, a fig dwarfed by ASML's spread to target.
ASML raised full-year guidance to betwixt €43 cardinal and €45 cardinal aft Q2 gross roseate 21% and delivered a 4th consecutive net beat.
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ASML (NASDAQ:ASML) presently trades astatine $1,740.99, portion the Street-high terms people from Bernstein sits astatine $2,623, implying astir 50% upside from here.

ASML is the Dutch supplier of utmost ultraviolet (EUV) and heavy ultraviolet (DUV) lithography systems, the multi-hundred-million-dollar machines each precocious chipmaker needs to people sub-3nm logic and next-generation HBM memory. ASML's bid publication is simply a starring indicator for AI-driven semiconductor capex. When the banal pulls backmost portion bookings climb, the spread gets scrutinized quickly.

The caller selling was catalyst-driven. Q2 numbers vindicated the bull case.

A China Headline Bruised a Stock the Earnings Had Just Vindicated

The pullback traces to a Bloomberg study connected July 27, 2026 that a Chinese state-backed steadfast had begun mass-producing immersion DUV lithography tools. ASML fell much than 7% intraday, hitting its lowest level since aboriginal June, with ticker sentiment scores collapsing to -0.807.

Two secondary pressures followed: chatter astir tighter U.S. export restrictions connected DUV shipments to China, and worries that High-NA EUV adoption was moving slower than the bull lawsuit required. Over the past month, ASML is down 1.43%, but the intramonth drawdown to enactment adjacent $1,538 was person to 13% earlier a crisp bounce. The assemblage sold disconnected with it, but ASML took the sharpest deed due to the fact that its China DUV vulnerability is the astir direct.

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Why Bernstein Won't Blink astatine a China Scare

Analysts stayed enactment due to the fact that Q2 made the carnivore lawsuit harder. ASML delivered gross of $10.65 billion, up 21.25% twelvemonth implicit year, with EPS of $8.67 extending the bushed streak to 4 consecutive quarters. Management raised full-year gross guidance to €43 cardinal to €45 cardinal and telegraphed plans to adhd 30% capableness to some low-NA EUV and DUV immersion for 2027.

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