2 weeks ago
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Fahad Saleem
Mon, August 10, 2026 astatine 10:45 AM CDT 3 min read
Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) shares made headlines precocious aft the company's AI part saw a bid of high-profile departures.
Gene Munster, managing spouse astatine Deepwater Asset Management, precocious said connected CNBC that the encephalon drain astatine Google should not beryllium ignored, arguing that the departures of cardinal AI researchers could person implications beyond the headlines. Munster said Google has seen astir six large departures implicit the past 3 months and that the nonaccomplishment of endowment could impact the company's civilization of innovation and its quality to make aboriginal AI models. He besides pointed to signs that Gemini has started to gaffe successful AI exemplary rankings comparative to competitors. He thinks these developments are not a affirmative trend.
At the aforesaid time, Munster highlighted important improvements from Grok, saying helium expects the AI exemplary to perchance interruption into the apical 3 models arsenic caller versions are released. Grok was developed by xAI and is integrated into X, portion xAI is present portion of SpaceX pursuing SpaceX's acquisition of the AI company.
SpaceX: An Attractive AI Bet?
The marketplace is figuring retired SpaceX isn't conscionable a abstraction company. The Space concern contributed conscionable 12% of Q2 gross and analysts deliberation the publication of abstraction whitethorn support shrinking arsenic different streams footwear in. Connectivity (Starlink) brought successful $4.29 billion, up 66% twelvemonth implicit year, with 12 cardinal subscribers, treble past year's count. AI brought successful $2.56 billion, up 247% twelvemonth implicit year, boosted by a large Anthropic deal.
The Bull Case Rests On $100 Billion ARR
Musk guided to a $100 cardinal annualized gross tally complaint by December, up from a Q2 tally complaint adjacent $31 billion. If SpaceX hits it, the banal trades astatine 14x that fig and looks reasonable. Bulls besides constituent to Musk's mathematics connected AI: if SpaceX tin propulsion AI compute capableness from 1.4 GW contiguous to 15 GW by extremity of 2027 astatine $50 cardinal per megawatt, that's $750 cardinal successful yearly AI gross potential.
The Bear Case Is About Cash
The carnivore lawsuit is simpler. SpaceX spent $15.8 cardinal connected AI capex successful 1 4th for conscionable 0.4 GW of caller capacity. That's astir $40 cardinal per gigawatt. Scaling to Musk's 15 GW people implies capex that dwarfs the $100 cardinal currency balance. JPMorgan estimates $200 cardinal successful capex for each of 2027 and 2028. SpaceX generated antagonistic $25 cardinal successful escaped currency travel successful the archetypal fractional of 2026.
Customer attraction is simply a risk. Two customers made up 38% of quarterly revenue, and unreality contracts tin beryllium canceled with 90 days' notice. Anthropic's ain compute pipeline shows deals with Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Nvidia that springiness it plentifulness of alternatives to SpaceX.
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