3 Companies Built Their Fortunes on COVID Vaccines, but Only 1 Has a Real Plan for What Comes Next

4 days ago 4

Trey Thoelcke

Mon, March 30, 2026 astatine 9:45 AM CDT 6 min read

Moderna (MRNA) generated $1.944B successful full-year 2025 gross (down 39.2% YoY) with antagonistic $2.822B nett nonaccomplishment and antagonistic $2.065B escaped currency flow, settling a $2.25B patent quality portion trading 13.6% supra the $43.75 Wall Street statement target. Novavax (NVAX) posted profitable results with $0.11 EPS versus antagonistic $0.42 estimates and $147.14M gross (up 66.6% YoY) driven heavy by Sanofi partnership, though it carries antagonistic shareholder equity and precocious volatility (beta 2.63). BioNTech (BNTX) reported affirmative full-year 2025 gross maturation of 4.3% to €2.87B with €17.2B successful currency and affirmative €403M operating currency flow, with 14 expert Buys and a statement people of $130.72, implying 52.4% upside from the existent price.
The COVID-19 vaccine roar created unsustainable gross models for each 3 companies, forcing Moderna and BioNTech to pivot toward oncology portion Novavax depends connected partnerships for survival, with lone BioNTech positioned to money a multi-year modulation backed by a fortress equilibrium expanse and pipeline breadth.
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The COVID-19 vaccine roar made fortunes astir overnight—and destroyed them conscionable arsenic fast. Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) has fallen 58.2% implicit 5 years. BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX) is down 10.9% implicit the aforesaid period, inactive beneath its pandemic peak. Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX) has mislaid 95.3% successful 5 years. The cardinal question for immoderate capitalist holding oregon considering these names: which institution has a credible, executable program for what comes next?

Moderna is the best-performing large-cap healthcare banal twelvemonth to date, up 67.7% YTD and 58.9% implicit the past year. That is existent momentum. The occupation is what sits underneath it.

Full-year 2025 gross came successful astatine $1.944 billion, down 39.23% twelvemonth implicit year. The nett nonaccomplishment was $2.822 billion, and escaped currency travel ran astatine antagonistic $2.065 billion. The institution precocious settled a large patent quality for $2.25 billion, with $950 cardinal owed upfront, clearing an IP overhang but landing a important stroke to a currency presumption that already required drafting $600 cardinal connected a $1.5 cardinal recognition facility. Management guides for year-end currency of $5.5 cardinal to $6.0 billion, assuming up to 10% gross growth.

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